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Bjørn Lomborg - Hero or Villain?

Bjørn Lomborg - Hero or Villain?

In his book 'The Skeptical Environmentalist' (1) Bjørn Lomborg produces a blockbusting 1,600 references to support his contention that environmental concerns are unfounded. He has been censured by the Danish Committee on Scientific Dishonesty as "clearly contrary to the standards of good scientific practice" Basically he is accused of 'Cherry picking'. But in the Financial Times (15th January) Martin Wolf mounts a robust defence. He claims there are unfair aspects in the attacks on Lomborg, and he also mentions unfounded prophecies of doom by e.g. Paul Ehrlich in the 1970s. But Mr Wolf's main contention is that Lomborg's book "Is hugely beneficial for a debate that has been far too one-sided. He is not being condemned because he is wrong or because he exaggerates, but because he is damnably inconvenient."

Although I disagree with Lomborg, I agree with Wolf. If Green issues must go through the progression of being ignored, then ridiculed and finally attacked, at last the real debate has begun. My own book "A Citizens' Income: Foundation for a Sustainable World", which should be published shortly makes a contrary case. I do not imagine that climate change figures largely in Lomborg's book, (2) but the evidence is held to be inconclusive, and the changes might be natural in any case. But even if Lomborg were absolutely right about the evidence to date, I would not be reassured. I include the story of Easter Island, which coincidentally was the subject of a BBC2 Horizon programme on Thursday 9th January.

In 1722 Dutch sailors found an impoverished population of some 4,000 who could not possibly have produced the scores of huge statues which dominate the island. It was treeless, which was odd so near the equator. The islanders' folklore told them only that their ancestors had been cannibals. Scientists and archaeologists have now pieced together their somewhat awesome history. A small group landed between 500 and 700 AD on what was a lush, forested island. By the 16th century there were an estimated 12,000 inhabitants, with an advanced culture of which the statues were the 'piéce de resistance'. Incredibly, they were denuding the island of trees. Far from taking avoiding action, the evidence is that statue-building intensified, with dozens of half-completed ones still in the quarry. The archaeological evidence bears out all too clearly the islanders' folk memory of the ensuing catastrophe, a century or so before the Dutch visit. I draw the same parallel as did the Horizon programme between Easter Island and the current management of the biosphere, the thin shell around a little ball which is all we living things have to share. In 'A Green history of the World', (3) Clive Ponting points out that the last 10,000 years, never mind the last 250, have been quite exceptional. The norm is equilibrium which 'Gaia', the complex interconnected web of life support systems always restores sooner or later after disruptions. We now have a global culture which has got used to ignoring Gaia's rules, and the last two centuries have seen an acceleration of both population and economic activity. When WOULD be the right time to stabilize population? When should 'resource productivity' be seen as the only possible justification for economic growth, not merely a good idea?

The plain fact is that our global culture would be quite incapable of responding to warning signs, however unmistakable. My book offers a possible way of accepting Gaia's rules voluntarily, instead of leaving it Easter Island like to her default settings.

1) Lomborg, Bjørn (2001) The Skeptical Environmentalist, Cambridge University Press
2) "Two days of apocalyptic rain, where it normally drizzles for half an hour every two years, have damaged the Nazca Lines 250 miles south east of Lima, in Peru. These have survived intact since they were made between 1,100 and 2,300 years ago. Flash floods near the area two years ago were shrugged off as an aberration. But this time at least six of the 16 distinctive patterns are noticeably smudged." Report in The Independent, 4th February 2000
3) Ponting, Clive (1991) A Green History of the World, Sinclair Stevenson Ltd, London

Clive Lord