Global
Warming
is
a
Local
Issue
A
Green Party 2003 local election briefing
Dr
Spencer Fitz-Gibbon
Additional
research by Bariane Rowlands
"The sea
level has risen 20 centimetres in the last century.
We could be
looking at a 3-metre rise during the coming century."
Green
Party local election broadcast
Contents
1. The threat of sea level rise p 3
2. The best possible response from local authorities p 5
3. Conclusion
Notes
Introduction
I1 Nowadays it's generally
recognised that global warming is a serious problem. But there's still a common
tendency to think of global warming as something that happens elsewhere - that
it's something for someone else to deal with. Local journalists frequently tell
Green Party candidates that climate change is not a local issue.
I2 But climate change most
definitely is a local issue. We've
seen an increased incidence of extreme weather events recently which, while
costing the UK economy as a whole billions of pounds [ 1 ], probably makes its
deepest effects on the individuals and local communities affected by floods and
storms.
I3 Moreover, much of the activity
responsible for climate change is local activity - and much of it can be
affected for better or for worse by the decisions of local authorities.
I4 And the solutions to climate
change will profoundly change Britain's towns and cities for the better.
Reducing CO2 emissions to meet the necessary targets will bring tremendous
social and economic benefits:
a.
A Green industrial revolution, to be
built around non-nuclear renewable energy production, domestic and industrial
energy conservation, Green waste management, and the restoration of local and
regional manufacturing industry to Britain's economy. This could mean a million
jobs in Green industries. [ 2 ]
b.
A Green transport revolution, to be
funded from cancellation of the national roads programme. This would mean huge
improvements in public transport, including in rural areas, and better provision for cyclists,
pedestrians and disabled people; fewer traffic accidents and far fewer people
killed or hospitalised by air pollution; [ 3 ] improvements in the urban environment
and quality of life, including widespread Safe Routes to School programmes and
creation of Home Zones; and more choice in mode of transport for more people.
I5 Of course, the ability of a
local authority to bring about change can be strengthened or weakened by
central government. There is much that Green councillors want to do that they
are currently prevented from doing by Britain's over-centralised government
system. Bearing this in mind, Green councillors perform a dual role:
a.
Fighting for Green policies that can be implemented now within existing local
authority powers.
b.
Campaigning to change the law and government policy to allow a greening of
local government without hindrance by central government.
I6 On climate change, there's a great deal that Green
councils could achieve now, and more that Green councillors will ceaselessly
campaign on.
1. The threat of
sea level rise
"...ice
shelves are closer to the breaking point than we previously thought.....
The Antarctic
has been up to now a relatively minor player in sea-level rise.
But it is the
600-pound gorilla in a way."
Ted
Scambos, National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado. [ 4 ]
1.1 It was recognised as long ago
as the late 1970s that global warming could melt the west Antarctic ice sheet -
a giant block of ice some 2.5 kilometres deep - with a resulting rise in global
sea level of some six metres. [ 5 ]
1.2 Ted Scambos of the National
Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado wrote recently:
"After hundreds of years in the making, it took only one decade of high
summer temperatures to see the destruction of both the Larsen A and Larsen B
ice shelves.....After several years of gradual reductions in extent, Larsen A
was lost in about a week at the end of January 1995. Over 1,700 square
kilometers of ice shelf disintegrated in a single storm event." [6]
1.3 British Antarctic Survey
glaciologist Dr David Vaughan has said, "In 1998, BAS predicted the demise
of more ice shelves around the Antarctic Peninsula. Since then warming on the
peninsula has continued and we watched as piece-by-piece Larsen B has
retreated. We knew what was left would collapse eventually, but the speed of it
is staggering. Hard to believe that 500 billion tonnes of ice sheet has disintegrated
in less than a month." [ 7 ]
1.4 Scientists continue to explore
the possibility that the west Antarctic ice sheet might disintegrate relatively
rapidly. [ 8 ] British Antarctic Survey
scientist Dr Dudeney has written that "A big question-mark exists over the
long term stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), where there are
some scientists have suggested a rather sudden (in geological time) collapse
may occur there with the consequence that sea level could rise by 5
metres." [ 9 ]
1.5 In March 2002, physicists from
Canada, the United States and Britain wrote in Science that a massive and
unusually abrupt rise in sea level about 14,000 years ago was caused by the
partial collapse of ice sheets in Antarctica. Near the end of the last Ice Age,
the global sea level rose over 20 metres - four times faster than usual for
that time period and at least 20 times faster than sea levels are rising now. [
10 ]
1.6 The cause of this 'global
meltwater pulse', a phenomenon first identified in 1989, has been unknown until
now. The above scientists say their findings not only pinpoints the source of
the meltwater pulse, but also make the case that significant climatic events
can occur very rapidly and unpredictably.
1.7 While the melting of the west Antarctic ice sheet would push sea levels up
by six metres, the melting of the larger but currently more stable east
Antarctic ice sheet would raise the earth's sea levels another 60 metres. It's
now known that during a period of a few hundred years, some 14,000 years ago,
these two huge ice sheets were far from stable. One or the other, or some
combination of the two, melted at a surprisingly rapid rate and caused a
20-metre surge in sea levels. That's roughly the equivalent in the space of a
year of the total sea level rise during the twentieth century. [ 11 ]
1.8 Even with a sea level rise
being only a few centimetres a year, the potential threat would be devastating.
A scientist at the University of Colorado has likened such a rise to the loss
of 100 feet of waterfront property all around the world. In low areas such as
estuaries, the sea could move as far as 1,000 feet inland. [ 12 ]
1.9 The effect on a low-lying
country like Bangladesh would be intolerable. With a rise in sea level of only
one metre, literally millions of Bangladesh's 134 million people would become
climate refugees. Rice-growing river floodplains in other Asian countries would
also be
affected, including India, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and China. A one-metre
rise in sea level would put more than a third of Shanghai under water. [ 13 ]
1.10 Donald F. Boesch of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental
Sciences estimates that for each millimetre rise in sea level, the shoreline
retreats an average of 1.5 meters. Thus if sea level rises by one metre,
coastline will retreat by 1,500 metres. With such a rise, the United States
would lose 36,000 square kilometres (14,000 square miles) of land. [ 14 ]
1.11 A team at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute has calculated that Massachusetts
alone will lose 7,500-10,000 acres (3,035-4,047 hectares) - based on the rather
modest predictions of the US Environmental Protection Agency. This, they say,
would amount to a loss of $7.5 billion of property in just one state of the
USA. A 50-centimetre rise in the sea-level could cost the USA $20-150 billion
dollars in lost properties. [ 15 ]
1.12 Comparable studies have yet
to be done for Britain, but the above indicates that this country will suffer
terribly from the effects of climate change unless we take radical action now.
2. The best
possible response from
local
authorities
2.1 While international action is
essential, [ 16 ] and while national-level action is crucial, there's a lot
that local authorities can do now to
help tackle climate change.
2.2 Five sectors account between
them for about 90% of CO2 emissions: power stations, industry, road transport,
the domestic sector, and aviation. [ 17 ]
2.3 Power stations account for
about 26% of UK CO2 emissions. In the longer term, there is ample potential to
replace fossil fuels with non-nuclear renewable energy, and this will require a
major national effort. In the short term, Green councillors can:
a.
Use their involvement in the planning
process to encourage the growth of the non-nuclear renewable energy sector,
and to oppose the building or life-extension of fossil-fuel power stations.
b.
Develop and meet ambitious local
authority targets for reductions in energy demand in both the buildings
under their control and the domestic sector within their borough. To support
this, campaign for the strengthening of such targets under the Home Energy
Conservation Acts, involving greater support from central government to help
meet such targets.
c.
Campaign for stricter laws governing
the energy-efficiency of new buildings.
d.
Make the fullest possible use of
existing government funding towards energy conservation measures and Green
energy, especially through solar roofs. [ 18 ]
2.4 Industry causes about 25% of
UK CO2 emissions, and the domestic sector (not including power supplied by
power stations) about 14%. Policies similar to the above would help industry
and the domestic sector to reduce their emissions. In addition, the change
towards Green waste management systems will help further reduce CO2 emissions.
Waste management is a major responsibility of local authorities, and therefore
offers scope for councillors to play an important part in reducing emissions
through the greener treatment of waste.
2.5 Road transport directly
contributes over one-fifth of UK CO2 emissions. Local traffic reduction
policies, and policies favouring sustainable transport, fall partially within
the jurisdiction of local authorities, and Green councils could play a major
role in helping drastically reduce transport emissions.
2.6 Green councillors can bring to
bear within local authorities a considerable body of experience in the
practical application of Green transport policy. Where it isn't within the
local authority's power to implement a given policy, they will campaign through
their local authority for changes in central government policy.
2.7 A guide to comprehensive traffic reduction measures
for local authorities can be found in A
Breath of Fresh Air: Achieving traffic reduction targets in UK local
authorities, May 2001, at www.greenparty.org.uk/reports.
2.8 A guide to funding a comprehensive change to sustainable
transport policy can be found in The
Green transport revolution and how to pay for it, May 2001, at www.greenparty.org.uk/reports.
2.9 Aviation contributes about 3%
of UK CO2 emissions - although its nitrogen oxide pollution, and the fact that
most of this occurs in the sky where the pollution is disproportionately
damaging, roughly doubles the global warming effect of aircraft pollution.
Moreover, aviation is the fastest-growing source of greenhouse gas emissions.
2.10 National and international
policies must be pursued in order to put the aviation industry on a more
sustainable footing, but local authorities can help by opposing applications to build or expand airports.
C1 If society is to avert the
worst consequences of climate change, a number of things must happen in
parallel:
a.
There must be binding international
agreements to achieve emission reductions according to meaningful targets.
b.
There must be strong national policies,
especially in the countries which currently cause disproportionately high
levels of pollution.
c.
There must be public education, and
it must be made as easy as possible for individuals to play their part: eg by
facilitating recycling, offering sustainable transport choices, and ensuring
domestic energy conservation.
C2 But an important factor will also be the policies
pursued by local authorities. In short, the job of tackling climate change
demands that local government pursue comprehensive and coherent climate policy
- and currently this means electing Green Party councillors in greater numbers.
Notes
1. See Out of the Frying Pan, Into the Flood: Global Warming and Weather
Disruption, www.greenparty.org.uk/reports.
2. See Best of Both Worlds: Green policies for job-creation AND sustainability,
www.greenparty.org.uk/reports.
3. See Stolen Life: Death and illness caused by air pollution, Green Party
2002 local elections briefing.
4. http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/planetearth/ice_melt_010117.html
.
5. Mercer, J. H. 1978. 'West
Antarctic Ice Sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: A threat of disaster.' Nature 271:321-325.
6. http://www.colorado.edu/PublicRelations/NewsReleases/2002/1615.html.
7. http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/News/Press_Releases/2002/20020319.html.
8. Ref http://www.amsci.org/amsci/articles/02articles/Siegert.html,
the January-Febuary 2002-04-25 American
scientist, Martin J. Siegert, Julian A. Dowdeswell, John-Inge Svendsen and
Anders Elverhøi. See the following:
Dowdeswell, J. A., et al. 1996. Large-scale sedimentation
on the glacier-influenced polar North Atlantic margins: Long-range side-scan
sonar evidence. Geophysical Research
Letters 23:3535-3538.
Elverhøi, A., et al. 1995. The growth and decay of the Late Weichselian ice sheet
in western Svalbard and adjacent areas based on provenance studies of marine
sediments. Quaternary Research
44:303-316.
Forman, S. L. et al. 1996. Postglacial emergence of western Franz Josef Land,
Russia, and retreat of the Barents Sea Ice Sheet. Quaternary Science Reviews 15:77-90.
Forman, S. L., et al. 1999. Late Quaternary
stratigraphy of western Yamal Peninsula, Russia: New constraints on the
configuration of the Eurasian ice sheet. Geology
27:807-810.
Grosswald, M. G., and T. J.
Hughes. 1995. Paleo-glaciology’s grand unsolved problem. Journal of Glaciology 41:313-332.
Hebbeln, D., T. Dokken, E. S.
Andersen, M. Hald and A. Elverhøi. 1994. Moisture supply for northern ice-sheet
growth during the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature
370:357-360.
Howell, D., M. J. Siegert and J.
A. Dowdeswell. 2000. Numerical modelling of glacial isostasy and ice sheet
growth within the Late Weichselian Barents Sea. Journal of Quaternary Science 15:475-486.
Hughes, T. J. 1987. The marine ice
transgression hypothesis. Geografiska
Annaler 69:237-250.
Landvik, J. Y., et al. 1998. Last glacial maximum of
Svalbard and the Barents Sea area: Ice sheet extent and configuration. Quaternary Science Reviews 17(1-3):43-75.
Mangerud, J., et al. 1998. Fluctuations of the Svalbard-Barents Sea Ice Sheet
during the last 150,000 years. Quaternary
Science Reviews 17:11-42.
Mercer, J. H. 1970. A former ice
sheet in the Arctic Ocean? Palaeogeography,
Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 8:19-27.
Mercer, J. H. 1978. West Antarctic
Ice Sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: A threat of disaster. Nature 271:321-325.
Polyak, L., V. Gataullin, O.
Okuneva and V. Stelle. 2000. New constraints on the limits of the Barents-Kara
ice sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum based on borehole stratigraphy from
the Pechora Sea. Geology 28:611-614.
Siegert, M. J., J. A. Dowdeswell
and M. Melles. 1999. Late Weichselian glaciation of the Eurasian High Arctic. Quaternary Research 52:273-285.
Svendsen, J. I., et al. 1999. Maximum extent of the
Eurasian ice sheets in the Barents and Kara Sea region during the Weichselian. Boreas 28:234-242.
9. http://www.number-10.gov.uk/default.asp?PageID=3232.
10. Jerry Mitrovica of the
University of Toronto, Peter Clark of Oregon State University, Glenn Milne of
the University of Durham, and Mark Tamisiea, a post-doctoral fellow at the
University of Toronto, Science, 29
March 2002.
11. Janet Wong, 'Antarctic ice
sheet key to sudden sea level rise: Researchers show Antarctic ice sheets may
not be as stable as previously thought', http://www.newsandevents.utoronto.ca/bin2/020328c.asp.
12. Mark Meier, glaciologist at
the University of Colorado, Boulder: http://www.cosmiverse.com/science02190202.html.
13. See www.earth-policy.org.
14. Ibid.
15. Ibid.
16. See the Green Party's policy
of contraction and convergence at www.greenparty.org.uk/campaigns -
climate change section, link to Global Commons Institute.
17. DTI, Directory of UK Energy
Statistics.
18. See our 2002 local election
briefing on solar power.
Promoted and published by Spencer Fitz-Gibbon for The Green Party,
both at 1a Waterlow Road, London N19 5NJ.