Global Warming
is a
Local Issue
A Green Party 2002
local election briefing
"The sea
level has risen 20 centimetres in the last century.
We could be
looking at a 3-metre rise during the coming century."
Green Party 2002 local election broadcast
Introduction
I1 Nowadays it's
generally recognised that global warming is a serious problem. But there's
still a common tendency to think of global warming as something that happens
elsewhere - that it's something for someone else to deal with. Local journalists
frequently tell Green Party candidates that climate change is not a local
issue.
I2 But climate
change most definitely is a local issue. We've seen an increased
incidence of extreme weather events recently which, while costing the UK
economy as a whole billions of pounds [ 1 ], probably makes its deepest effects
on the individuals and local communities affected by floods and storms.
I3 Moreover, much
of the activity responsible for climate change is local activity - and much of
it can be affected for better or for worse by the decisions of local
authorities.
I4 And the
solutions to climate change will profoundly change Britain's towns and cities
for the better. Reducing CO2 emissions to meet the necessary targets will bring
tremendous social and economic benefits:
a. A Green industrial
revolution, to be built around non-nuclear renewable energy production,
domestic and industrial energy conservation, Green waste management, and the
restoration of local and regional manufacturing industry to Britain's economy.
This could mean a million jobs in Green industries. [ 2 ]
b. A Green transport
revolution, to be funded from cancellation of the national roads programme.
This would mean huge improvements in public transport, including in rural
areas, and better provision for
cyclists, pedestrians and disabled people; fewer traffic accidents and far
fewer people killed or hospitalised by air pollution; [ 3 ] improvements in the
urban environment and quality of life, including widespread Safe Routes to
School programmes and creation of Home Zones; and more choice in mode of
transport for more people.
I5 Of course, the ability of a local authority to bring about change can be strengthened or weakened by central government. There is much that Green councillors want to do that they are currently prevented from doing by Britain's over-centralised government system. Bearing this in mind, Green councillors perform a dual role:
a. Fighting for Green policies
that can be implemented now within existing local authority powers.
b. Campaigning to change the law
and government policy to allow a greening of local government without hindrance
by central government.
I6 On climate
change, there's a great deal that Green councils could achieve now, and more
that Green councillors will ceaselessly campaign on.
Part 1
"...ice
shelves are closer to the breaking point than we previously thought.....
The Antarctic has
been up to now a relatively minor player in sea-level rise.
But it is the
600-pound gorilla in a way."
Ted Scambos, National Snow and Ice Data Center,
University of Colorado. [ 4 ]
1.1 It was
recognised as long ago as the late 1970s that global warming could melt the
west Antarctic ice sheet - a giant block of ice some 2.5 kilometres deep - with
a resulting rise in global sea level of some six metres. [ 5 ]
1.2 Ted Scambos of
the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado wrote
recently: "After hundreds of years in the making, it took only one decade
of high summer temperatures to see the destruction of both the Larsen A and
Larsen B ice shelves.....After several years of gradual reductions in extent,
Larsen A was lost in about a week at the end of January 1995. Over 1,700 square
kilometers of ice shelf disintegrated in a single storm event." [ 6 ]
1.3 British
Antarctic Survey glaciologist Dr David Vaughan has said, "In 1998, BAS
predicted the demise of more ice shelves around the Antarctic Peninsula. Since
then warming on the peninsula has continued and we watched as piece-by-piece
Larsen B has retreated. We knew what was left would collapse eventually, but
the speed of it is staggering. Hard to believe that 500 billion tonnes of ice
sheet has disintegrated in less than a month." [ 7 ]
1.4 Scientists
continue to explore the possibility that the west Antarctic ice sheet might
disintegrate relatively rapidly. [ 8 ]
British Antarctic Survey scientist Dr Dudeney has written that "A big
question-mark exists over the long term stability of the West Antarctic Ice
Sheet (WAIS), where there are some scientists have suggested a rather sudden
(in geological time) collapse may occur there with the consequence that sea
level could rise by 5 metres." [ 9 ]
1.5 In March 2002,
physicists from Canada, the United States and Britain wrote in Science
that a massive and unusually abrupt rise in sea level about 14,000 years
ago was caused by the partial collapse of ice sheets in Antarctica. Near the
end of the last Ice Age, the global sea level rose over 20 metres - four times
faster than usual for that time period and at least 20 times faster than sea
levels are rising now. [ 10 ]
1.6 The cause of
this 'global meltwater pulse', a phenomenon first identified in 1989, has been
unknown until now. The above scientists say their findings not only pinpoints
the source of the meltwater pulse, but also make the case that significant
climatic events can occur very rapidly and unpredictably.
1.7 While the melting of the west Antarctic ice sheet would push sea levels up
by six metres, the melting of the larger but currently more stable east
Antarctic ice sheet would raise the earth's sea levels another 60 metres. It's
now known that during a period of a few hundred years, some 14,000 years ago,
these two huge ice sheets were far from stable. One or the other, or some
combination of the two, melted at a surprisingly rapid rate and caused a
20-metre surge in sea levels. That's roughly the equivalent in the space of a
year of the total sea level rise during the twentieth century. [ 11 ]
1.8 Even with a
sea level rise being only a few centimetres a year, the potential threat would
be devastating. A scientist at the University of Colorado has likened such a
rise to the loss of 100 feet of waterfront property all around the world. In
low areas such as estuaries, the sea could move as far as 1,000 feet inland. [
12 ]
1.9 The effect on
a low-lying country like Bangladesh would be intolerable. With a rise in sea
level of only one metre, literally millions of Bangladesh's 134 million people
would become climate refugees. Rice-growing river floodplains in other Asian
countries would also be
affected, including India, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and China. A one-metre
rise in sea level would put more than a third of Shanghai under water. [ 13 ]
1.10 Donald F. Boesch of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental
Sciences estimates that for each millimetre rise in sea level, the shoreline
retreats an average of 1.5 meters. Thus if sea level rises by one metre,
coastline will retreat by 1,500 metres. With such a rise, the United States
would lose 36,000 square kilometres (14,000 square miles) of land. [ 14 ]
1.11 A team at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute has calculated that
Massachusetts alone will lose 7,500-10,000 acres (3,035-4,047 hectares) - based
on the rather modest predictions of the US Environmental Protection Agency.
This, they say, would amount to a loss of $7.5 billion of property in just one
state of the USA. A 50-centimetre rise in the sea-level could cost the USA
$20-150 billion dollars in lost properties. [ 15 ]
1.12 Comparable
studies have yet to be done for Britain, but the above indicates that this
country will suffer terribly from the effects of climate change unless we take
radical action now.
Part 2
The best possible
response from
local authorities
2.1 While
international action is essential, [ 16 ] and while national-level action is
crucial, there's a lot that local authorities can do now to help tackle
climate change.
2.2 Five sectors
account between them for about 90% of CO2 emissions: power stations, industry,
road transport, the domestic sector, and aviation. [ 17 ]
2.3 Power stations
account for about 26% of UK CO2 emissions. In the longer term, there is ample
potential to replace fossil fuels with non-nuclear renewable energy, and this
will require a major national effort. In the short term, Green councillors can:
a. Use their involvement in
the planning process to encourage the growth of the non-nuclear renewable
energy sector, and to oppose the building or life-extension of fossil-fuel
power stations.
b. Develop and meet ambitious
local authority targets for reductions in energy demand in both the
buildings under their control and the domestic sector within their borough. To
support this, campaign for the strengthening of such targets under the Home
Energy Conservation Acts, involving greater support from central government to
help meet such targets.
c. Campaign for stricter laws
governing the energy-efficiency of new buildings.
d. Make the fullest possible
use of existing government funding towards energy conservation measures and
Green energy, especially through solar roofs. [ 18 ]
Greening industry
2.4 Industry causes about 25% of UK CO2 emissions, and the domestic sector (not including power supplied by power stations) about 14%. Policies similar to the above would help industry and the domestic sector to reduce their emissions. In addition, the change towards Green waste management systems will help further reduce CO2 emissions. Waste management is a major responsibility of local authorities, and therefore offers scope for councillors to play an important part in reducing emissions through the greener treatment of waste.
2.5 Road transport
directly contributes over one-fifth of UK CO2 emissions. Local traffic
reduction policies, and policies favouring sustainable transport, fall
partially within the jurisdiction of local authorities, and Green councils
could play a major role in helping drastically reduce transport emissions.
2.6 Green
councillors can bring to bear within local authorities a considerable body of
experience in the practical application of Green transport policy. Where it
isn't within the local authority's power to implement a given policy, they will
campaign through their local authority for changes in central government
policy.
2.7 A guide to comprehensive
traffic reduction measures for local authorities can be found in A Breath of Fresh Air: Achieving traffic
reduction targets in UK local authorities, May 2001, at www.greenparty.org.uk/reports.
2.8 A guide to
funding a comprehensive change to sustainable transport policy can be
found in The Green transport revolution
and how to pay for it, May 2001, at www.greenparty.org.uk/reports.
2.9 Aviation
contributes about 3% of UK CO2 emissions - although its nitrogen oxide
pollution, and the fact that most of this occurs in the sky where the pollution
is disproportionately damaging, roughly doubles the global warming effect of
aircraft pollution. Moreover, aviation is the fastest-growing source of
greenhouse gas emissions.
2.10 National and
international policies must be pursued in order to put the aviation industry on
a more sustainable footing, but local authorities can help by opposing
applications to build or expand airports.
C1 If society is
to avert the worst consequences of climate change, a number of things must
happen in parallel:
a. There must be binding
international agreements to achieve emission reductions according to
meaningful targets.
b. There must be strong
national policies, especially in the countries which currently cause
disproportionately high levels of pollution.
c. There must be public
education, and it must be made as easy as possible for individuals to play
their part: eg by facilitating recycling, offering sustainable transport
choices, and ensuring domestic energy conservation.
C2 But an
important factor will also be the policies pursued by local authorities. In
short, the job of tackling climate change demands that local government pursue
comprehensive and coherent climate policy - and currently this means electing
Green Party councillors in greater numbers.
1. See Out of the Frying Pan, Into the Flood:
Global Warming and Weather Disruption, www.greenparty.org.uk/reports.
2. See Best of Both Worlds: Green policies for
job-creation AND sustainability, www.greenparty.org.uk/reports.
3. See Stolen Life: Death and illness caused by air
pollution, Green Party 2002 local elections briefing.
4. http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/planetearth/ice_melt_010117.html
.
5. Mercer, J. H.
1978. 'West Antarctic Ice Sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: A threat of
disaster.' Nature 271:321-325.
6. http://www.colorado.edu/PublicRelations/NewsReleases/2002/1615.html.
7. http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/News/Press_Releases/2002/20020319.html.
8. Ref http://www.amsci.org/amsci/articles/02articles/Siegert.html,
the January-Febuary 2002-04-25 American
scientist, Martin J. Siegert, Julian A. Dowdeswell, John-Inge Svendsen and
Anders Elverhøi. See the following:
Dowdeswell, J. A.,
et al. 1996. Large-scale
sedimentation on the glacier-influenced polar North Atlantic margins:
Long-range side-scan sonar evidence. Geophysical
Research Letters 23:3535-3538.
Elverhøi, A., et al. 1995. The growth and decay of the
Late Weichselian ice sheet in western Svalbard and adjacent areas based on
provenance studies of marine sediments. Quaternary
Research 44:303-316.
Forman, S. L. et al. 1996. Postglacial emergence of
western Franz Josef Land, Russia, and retreat of the Barents Sea Ice Sheet. Quaternary Science Reviews 15:77-90.
Forman, S. L., et al. 1999. Late Quaternary
stratigraphy of western Yamal Peninsula, Russia: New constraints on the
configuration of the Eurasian ice sheet. Geology
27:807-810.
Grosswald, M. G.,
and T. J. Hughes. 1995. Paleo-glaciology’s grand unsolved problem. Journal of Glaciology 41:313-332.
Hebbeln, D., T.
Dokken, E. S. Andersen, M. Hald and A. Elverhøi. 1994. Moisture supply for
northern ice-sheet growth during the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature 370:357-360.
Howell, D., M. J.
Siegert and J. A. Dowdeswell. 2000. Numerical modelling of glacial isostasy and
ice sheet growth within the Late Weichselian Barents Sea. Journal of Quaternary Science 15:475-486.
Hughes, T. J.
1987. The marine ice transgression hypothesis. Geografiska Annaler 69:237-250.
Landvik, J. Y., et al. 1998. Last glacial maximum of
Svalbard and the Barents Sea area: Ice sheet extent and configuration. Quaternary Science Reviews 17(1-3):43-75.
Mangerud, J., et al. 1998. Fluctuations of the
Svalbard-Barents Sea Ice Sheet during the last 150,000 years. Quaternary Science Reviews 17:11-42.
Mercer, J. H.
1970. A former ice sheet in the Arctic Ocean? Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 8:19-27.
Mercer, J. H.
1978. West Antarctic Ice Sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: A threat of disaster.
Nature 271:321-325.
Polyak, L., V.
Gataullin, O. Okuneva and V. Stelle. 2000. New constraints on the limits of the
Barents-Kara ice sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum based on borehole
stratigraphy from the Pechora Sea. Geology
28:611-614.
Siegert, M. J., J.
A. Dowdeswell and M. Melles. 1999. Late Weichselian glaciation of the Eurasian
High Arctic. Quaternary Research
52:273-285.
Svendsen, J. I., et al. 1999. Maximum extent of the
Eurasian ice sheets in the Barents and Kara Sea region during the Weichselian. Boreas 28:234-242.
9. http://www.number-10.gov.uk/default.asp?PageID=3232.
10. Jerry
Mitrovica of the University of Toronto, Peter Clark of Oregon State University,
Glenn Milne of the University of Durham, and Mark Tamisiea, a post-doctoral
fellow at the University of Toronto, Science,
29 March 2002.
11. Janet Wong,
'Antarctic ice sheet key to sudden sea level rise: Researchers show Antarctic
ice sheets may not be as stable as previously thought', http://www.newsandevents.utoronto.ca/bin2/020328c.asp.
12. Mark Meier,
glaciologist at the University of Colorado, Boulder: http://www.cosmiverse.com/science02190202.html.
13. See www.earth-policy.org.
14. Ibid.
15. Ibid.
16. See the Green
Party's policy of contraction and convergence at www.greenparty.org.uk/campaigns
- climate change section, link to Global Commons Institute.
17. DTI, Directory
of UK Energy Statistics.
18. See our 2002
local election briefing on solar power.
Dr Spencer
Fitz-Gibbon
External
Communications Coordinator
Green Party of
England & Wales
26 April 2002