Green Party:

The
Strongest
Link

with public opinion

"Statistically, the Green Party is the strongest link with public opinion.  Ironically the two biggest parties, Labour and Conservative, are the weakest links.  But will the voting follow the facts?"

 

 

Researched by Spencer Fitz-Gibbon, Simon Dixon and Chris Maile for the Green Party of England & Wales.  Published by Spencer Fitz-Gibbon, 1a Waterlow Road, London N19 5NJ. Phone 020 7561 0282.
Email media@greenparty.org.uk

 

Green Party: The Strongest Link

Introduction

  1. Opinion polls during the year-and-a-half preceding the 2001 general election reveal huge support for Green Party policies.
  2. The Green Party has analysed all polls undertaken by MORI and by ICM on policy issues since January 2000, and has found that support for Green Party policies is almost always higher than support for Labour and Conservative policies.
  3. A survey of individual opinion polls on policies indicates that:
    1. In all polls, support for the Green Party policy in question stands very much higher than one might imagine from the voter-intention polls, which show the Green Party on 1-2%.
    2. Over an initial range of issues, more people support Green Party policy than support the policies of the three main consumer-capitalist parties (Tory, Labour and Liberal Democrat).
    3. Over a second range of issues, more people support the Green Party policy than the policy of the two biggest parties, Labour and Conservative (where the Liberal Democrats are closer to the Greens).
    4. Over a third range of issues, a substantial minority support Green Party policy rather than the policies of the two or three main consumer-capitalist parties.
    5. Overall, if these polls were reflected in voting patterns:
      • The party of government would be the Green Party.
      • The main opposition parties would be the Socialist Alliance and the Liberal Democrats.
      • The minor parties would include the Conservatives and New Labour.
  4. There is clearly an enormous gulf between what people support in the policy-related polls on the one hand, and the party they say they'll support in the voting intentions polls on the other. This can be explained by two main factors:
    1. Media bias in the coverage of the various parties. Almost all media coverage of political parties is of Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. The Green Party gets only a tiny percentage of the broadcast and print exposure which the big three parties enjoy. Little wonder, then, that so many people prefer Green policies overall, but don't realise it!
    2. The first-past-the-post electoral system. Britain's outdated electoral system encourages many people to vote for a party which is not their first preference, in order to keep their least favourite party out. The statement "I'm voting Labour (or LibDem) to keep the Tories out" is one of the most common responses found by Green Party canvassers.
  5. The Green Party can confidently assert that if the media allowed the Greens as much exposure as it gives to the big three consumer-capitalist parties, electoral support for the Green Party would be massive.

The polls

  1. Research for this paper took account of the hundreds of polls conducted by ICM and by MORI between January 2000 and April 2001 inclusive, plus any other polls which had been published in May 2001 before the time of writing. Polls on non-policy issues (such as whether people would eat GM foods, or whether the Queen should abdicate) were discounted. A number of other polls, where the Green Party view has never been tested and therefore offered no evidence either way, were also discounted.
  2. Most relevant polls were found to indicate that more people support the Green Party view than agree with Labour and the Conservatives. A smaller number of polls reveal that a large minority prefers the Green Party view.

Transport

  1. Opinion polls indicate overwhelming public support for Green Party transport policies over those of the Tories, Liberal Democrats and Labour.
  2. Recent polls have shown that between 67% and 76% of the public want the railways renationalised - a Green Party policy, but not the policy of the consumer-capitalist parties. [ A recent Ecologist poll found 72% wanted to renationalise the rail networks, while only 19% took the Tory, Labour and Liberal Democrat line. An ICM poll for BBC2's Newsnight in January 2001 showed three times as many people in favour of the renationalisation of Railtrack as against it (69% to 23%). An ICM poll for The Guardian in April 2001 showed 76% in favour of bringing the railways back into the public sector with just 16% against - nearly 5 times as many in favour as against. Note that the LibDems have decided to support renationalisation of Railtrack but not of the network as a whole - and they failed to put their weight behind an attempt by Green peer Lord Beaumont of Whitley to introduce a Bill to renationalise Railtrack. ]
  3. Another recent poll asked whether we need to build more roads, or should channel the funds into alternatives, or do both. Only 22% supported the Labour, Tory and Liberal Democrat line of doing both. Fully 61% said invest in alternatives - the Green Party line. [ Ecologist vol 31 no 4 May 2001 p34. ]
  4. 80% want to see more goods carried by rail, or see heavy lorries restricted. This is strong support for Green Party policy. [ MORI, Freight on Rail Partnership, 8.2.2000. ]
  5. 48% think that the government should give manufacturers more incentives to send goods by rail. The Green Party's eco-taxation policies would ensure this, while Labour and the Tories instead talk about cutting tax on road fuel and thus encourage road freight. [ MORI, ibid. 37% want to see the government encourage businesses to promote their goods as rail-freighted, even if this means that extra transport costs are passed on to consumers. The Green Party would heartily support this. ]
  6. 54% believe that the government should give environmental policy a higher priority even if it means penalising car drivers. [ Guardian/ICM Monthly Poll October 2000. Unfortunately, the Green Party's preferred option on fuel tax has never been tested in opinion polls. A report published by the Green Party in November 2000 showed that abolishing car tax on smaller cars while increasing fuel tax by 6p a litre would leave a typical motorist £30 a year better off, while still offering an incentive for reduced car use. See Fair on Fuel, Fair on the Future: A social, economic and environmental case for higher fuel taxes, available at www.greenparty.org.uk . ]
  7. In another poll, 62% agreed with the Green Party by opposing the government's policy of partially privatising air traffic control. [ NOP 23.11.00. Most backbench MPs, even, oppose the government's plans. More than half the MPs interviewed, 55%, including 46% of Labour backbenchers, said they opposed the proposal in the Transport Bill to sell off a majority stake in National Air Traffic Services; only 42% of the MPs were in favour. Concerns over safety were the most frequently cited reason, mentioned by three-fifths of opponents. The Herald, 30.3.2000, Harris Survey for IPMS Union. ]
  8. Other polls have found clear support for the Green Party policy of keeping the London underground in public hands. 49% want the Tube in public ownership, only 13% support the Tories in wanting it privatised, and just 28% support the Labour policy of public-private partnership. [ NOP/Evening Standard 23.11.00. GLA/MORI 16.11.00 showed that twice as many Londoners opposed the Government's PPP as supported it: with 53% against and 23% in favour. 42% thought that the Tube would be less safe and only 16% felt the PPP would be better value for money (Nov. 2000). ]

Energy

  1. Support for Green policies on energy depends partly on public understanding of the technological potential for non-nuclear renewables, and partly on understanding of the issues around emissions targets - a quite specialised subject. Even so, recent polls have indicated significant dissatisfaction with government targets and the policies of the consumer-capitalist parties.
  2. 34% of respondents felt the government's target for renewable energy was too low. [ Ecologist vol 31 no 4 May 2001 p34. The target is 10% of UK energy from non-nuclear renewable sources by 2010. ]
  3. Only 50% of respondents want to keep nuclear power, while fully 35% want the industry closed down and 15% were undecided. [ Ecologist ibid. ] Even though only a minority support the Green viewpoint, it's a very large minority.
  4. On nuclear reprocessing, the Green Party's policy is easily the most popular.
  5. 85% think that the British Nuclear Fuels plant at Sellafield should not be allowed to discharge reprocessed radioactive waste into the air and sea. Only 11% agreed with Labour and the Tories that such discharges should be allowed. [NOP/Guardian, 21.6.2000. ]
  6. When potential job losses were taken into account, support for a ban on reprocessing fell to 64% with 27% in favour of continuing to allow discharges. [NOP/Guardian, ibid. ] However, the Green Party has long since argued that nuclear power sustains the smallest number of jobs per unit of energy produced, whereas wind and wave energy sustain more. [ See Best of Both Worlds: Green policies for job-creation AND sustainability. ] If this were general knowledge, we would expect an even greater majority in favour of Green Party ant-nuclear policy.
  7. Almost nine out of ten Britons believe the UK should stop importing foreign nuclear waste. [ ICM/Joseph Rowntree "State of the Nation" Poll October 2000. ]
  8. Asked whether ministers could be trusted to tell the truth over the safety of nuclear installations 75% said no and only 18% said yes. [ ICM/Joseph Rowntree ibid. ]

Globalisation and corporate rule

  1. The Green Party strongly believes in political and economic subsidiarity - that decisions should be made at the lowest appropriate level - that our electoral system, our constitution and our law should be changed to give local communities more say in how their economies and local areas are run. This is the opposite of the economic globalisation policy of the big three consumer-capitalist parties, and antithetical to the centralisation policies of Labour and the Tories (and, to a lesser extent, of the LibDems).
  2. In a recent poll, 80% supported the Green stance. [ Ecologist vol 31 no 4 May 2001 p36, asking 'Do you think that local communities should have more or less say over how their economies and local areas are run?' ]
  3. A huge majority agree with the Green Party in opposing some or all of the key principles of the World Trade Organisation. 89% say that the government should have the power to ban the import of goods which may damage the health of the population. 90% feel that environmental protection should take priority over the interests of multinational companies when a conflict arises. [ Ecologist/ MORI 21.4.2000. ]
  4. 78% of respondents believed that either globalisation, or the policies associated with it, have been the main cause of crises like BSE and foot-and-mouth disease. Clearly those people are more in tune with the Green Party on this issue than with the Tories, Liberal Democrats or Labour. [ Ecologist 2001, ibid. ]
  5. The Green Party alone argues for a shifting of the economic playing field to favour smaller local producers over large corporations. In a recent poll, 87% supported the Green stance. [ Ecologist 2001 ibid. ]
  6. Labour and the Conservatives derive millions of pounds from corporate sponsorship and donations. The Green Party argues that this severely distorts democracy, as the parties with immense wealth are far better able to publicise their policies - and are effectively in the pocket of the corporations which fund them.
  7. In a recent poll, 54% said corporate donations to political parties should be banned. [ Ecologist vol 31 no 4 May 2001 p36. ] In another poll, 58% of voters found the Labour/Tory reliance on large donations from a select number of wealthy individuals undesirable. [ Gallup/Daily Telegraph 19.1.01. Of those 58%, 56% were in favour of state aid to political parties - Green Party policy - and only 42% were against. ]

The Euro

  1. Over the last year and a half, public opposition to the Euro has been consistent, and has consistently risen. Currently around 70% would vote No in a referendum on the Euro. [ In forty-eight polls conducted between January 1999 and May 2001 by Gallup, ICM, MFS and MORI, there has always been a majority against the Euro. The lowest percentage against was 51% and the highest 71%. The general trend has been for the majority against to grow stronger during those two years. ] This is Green Party policy, not Labour or Liberal Democrat.

Running the country

  1. An ICM poll in February 2001 found that at least 50% of voters want a more proportional voting method - Green Party policy. Only 35% are happy with first-past-the-post - Labour and Tory policy. [ ICM/Guardian/Times 14.2.01.]
  2. Last year's ICM/Joseph Rowntree "State of the Nation" Poll found that, when shown possible options in a referendum on electoral reform, 27% favoured the existing system of voting (the Labour/Tory policy), 53% a system of PR (the Green Party policy), and 20% were unsure.
  3. 60% agreed that the length of a term of parliament should be fixed, removing the right of the prime minister to choose the date of the election. This is Green Party policy, not Labour or Tory. [ ICM/Joseph Rowntree "State of the Nation" Poll 2000. ]
  4. 56% felt that the current voting system produces governments which do not represent the views of most ordinary people. 61% favoured voting reform for local elections - Green Party policy, not Labour or Tory. [ ICM/Joseph Rowntree "State of the Nation" Poll 2000. ]
  5. The Green Party believes that government power is too centralised. The ICM "State of the Nation" Poll 2000 found that 60% agreed with the Greens' stance, and only 13% disagreed. [ 29% strongly agreed that government power is too centralised, 31% tended to agree, 16% neither agreed nor disagreed, 9% tended to disagree, 4% strongly disagreed. ICM/Joseph Rowntree "State of the Nation" Poll October 2000.]
  6. 75% of respondents in a more recent poll thought there should be more referenda on more issues than at present. [ Ecologist, vol 31 no 4 May 2001 p38. ] This is Green Party policy - not Labour or Tory.
  7. 80% thought local communities should have more say in running their economies and local areas. [ Ecologist ibid p36. ] This is Green Party policy - not Labour or Tory.

Defence

  1. Polls find that either a majority (56%) or a very large minority (38%) support the Green Party stance against the proposed Euro-army. [ ICM/Daily Telegraph 6.12.00 asked whether substantial numbers of British troops should be put into a European military force under the command of the EU. 56% said no, 30% said yes. Mail on Sunday/MORI 26.11.00 asked whether Tony Blair should commit the UK to joining the European Rapid Reaction Force. 58% said yes, 38% said no. ]
  2. Prior to the 1997 general election, the Green Party was campaigning against the sale of arms to violent dictatorships, such as the Indonesian government which was involved in genocide in East Timor. Having promised a "foreign policy based on ethics" the New Labour government outrageously continued such sales to the same violent dictators.
  3. In one poll last year, 87% of the general public supported stronger government controls on arms sales abroad. 77% said that Labour "has not done enough to stop the sale of arms to governments which abuse human rights since coming to power." [Gallup, Guardian, 15.2.2000] Once again, a very large majority support the Green viewpoint against that of Labour and the Tories.

National Health Service

  1. The Green Party believes that the NHS should be restored to what it once was - a health service for all, free at the point of delivery, and properly funded.
  2. This is not the policy of Labour or the Tories; but opinion polls indicate that a majority would agree with the Green Party.
  3. One poll found that after three years of Labour government, nearly two-thirds of respondents believed the NHS needed "quite a lot" or "a great deal" of improvement. [Fewer than 5% believe the NHS offers such a good service that it could not be improved. 63% picked it as the most valuable institution, far ahead of Parliament (12%), the Police (11%), the BBC (4%) and the Royal Family (3%). ICM/Guardian, 18.4.2000. Another poll found that 64% believed the NHS had not improved after three years of Labour government. MORI/Mail on Sunday, 23.7.2000. According to an NOP poll for ITV's Jonathan Dimbleby Programme, two-thirds of Britons believe that there has been no improvement in the NHS since Tony Blair became Prime Minister. ]
  4. In another, 67% said the government was spending too little on health. [Mail on Sunday/MORI 23.7.2000.] In another, 76% believed that after three years of New Labour there was "a crisis" in NHS funding. [ NOP poll for ITV's Jonathan Dimbleby Programme. ]
  5. While Labour and the Tories are both claiming they will increase health spending, they're also insisting they will cut the very taxes which would be required for the scale of improvements necessary. The Green Party believes that if we want a properly-funded NHS, we must raise the tax revenue to fund it - and a majority agree with the Greens.
  6. Between 53% [ NOP/Mail on Sunday, 19.3.2000. ] and 65% [ICM/News of the World, January 2000] would be prepared to pay more income tax to improve the NHS. 26% would support a tax rise of 4p in the pound or more for this purpose. [ NOP/Mail on Sunday, 19.3.2000. Daily Telegraph, 20.3.2000. 78% would prefer to see money invested in the NHS than receive a tax cut. [ Guardian/ICM, March 2000. ] This is Green Party policy, not Labour or Tory.

Complementary medicine

  1. 79% of general practitioners want to see acupuncture available on the NHS. This is Green Party policy, not Labour. [ 58% of GPs questioned have arranged complementary treatments for their patients, with 47% prescribing acupuncture, 30% osteopathy, and 25% recommending homeopathy. BMA Survey, The Guardian, 24.6.2000]

Food and agriculture

  1. Food and agriculture are two more subjects where Green Party policies enjoy massive support.
  2. Currently only 3% of British farmland is farmed organically. So much for the policies of successive Conservative and Labour governments. But 52% of respondents in a recent poll said that at least 30% of farmland should be organic. This indicates a majority in favour of the Green policy over the Labour, Tory or Liberal Democrat policy. [The Soil Association/MORI, 26 March 2001. ]
  3. Under Labour, the government spends thirteen times as much on GM research than on organic research. In a recent poll, only 21% felt this balance was right. 66% took the Green view that there should be more emphasis on organic research. [ Ecologist vol 31 no 4 May 2001 p35. ]
  4. Only the Green Party has called for an outright ban on GM foods. Some 45% of respondents in a recent poll agreed with the Green Party. [ Ecologist vol 31 no 4 May 2001 p36. ] Once again, even where the Green Party view is shared by a minority, it's a very large minority.
  5. One recent poll asked people what was the main cause of problems like BSE and foot-and-mouth disease. While 14% blamed the British government, 41% blamed intensive farming (which has been wholeheartedly supported by successive governments) and 23% blamed the globalised economy (which is supported enthusiastically by all three main consumer-capitalist parties). [ A poll dealing specifically with the government's handling of the foot and mouth epidemic showed strong support for Green Party policy. 56% disapprove of the government's handling of the epidemic. 40% favour vaccination rather than culling to control the disease - Green Party policy. 58% would buy meat from a vaccinated animal. Guardian/ICM, April 2001] Since intensive farming, globalisation and government policy are all inextricably linked, it's reasonable to say that 78% of those polled were closer to the Green Party than to the consumer-capitalist parties.
  6. Labour's recently unveiled policy on agriculture stresses the 'need' to further intensify agriculture - which must surely underline the extent to which Labour is out of tune with public opinion, by contrast with the Green Party.
  7. A large majority of Britons don't even trust the government to tell the truth on these issues. In a poll on food safety, only 20% thought that government ministers could be trusted to tell the truth, while 74% said the government couldn't be trusted. In a poll on GM foods, 19% said government ministers could be trusted to tell the truth about GM food, and 73% that the government couldn't be trusted. [ ICM/Joseph Rowntree "State of the Nation" Poll October 2000. ]
  8. Of all the parties, only the Greens are calling for major reductions in 'food miles' and for a far greater proportion of Britain's food to be produced in Britain. A recent poll found that 89% of respondents would buy more British food if it were available - a very strong indication that the Green Party policy would be popular. [ Ecologist May 2001. ]

The 'right to roam'

  1. 79% of the public supports the extension of the laws allowing public access to privately owned land. [ The Guardian, ICM/Ramblers' Association survey, 4.4.2000. ] This is Green Party policy, but not Labour or Conservative.

Animal rights

  1. Commentators often portray animal rights as a matter for a small if vocal fringe minority. This is not true, and Green Party policies on animal rights enjoy the support, if not always of the majority, at least of a very sizeable minority.
  2. One poll found 36% of respondents supported the Green Party policy against scientific research on animals. [ Gallup/Daily Telegraph 19.1.01. Support for animal research had no absolute majority, with 46% supporting it and 18% unsure. ] Amongst younger people aged 18-24, 44% favoured the Green Party line. [ Ibid. Only 35% of this age group supported animal research. ]
  3. On foxhunting, different polls throw up different results. But in any case, polls suggest that almost half the overall population supports the Green Party policy. [ NOP/Guardian 28.12.00 found 48% wanted to ban hunting and 14% to allow it. Channel 4/Guardian 28.12.00 found 46.6% wanted to ban it, 46.7% to allow it. ] Even in rural areas, 25% support Green Party policy on banning foxhunting. [ Cardiff University researched attitudes to hunting in four rural communities which were centred around individual hunts. They found that 52% wished hunting to continue with the remainder either opposed (25%) or neutral. However, only a quarter (25%) felt hunting played an important part in their day-to-day life. MORI, April 2000]

Drugs

  1. A comprehensive recent poll found that 42% believe cannabis should remain illegal as at present, while 47% disagree. This shows a majority in favour of Green Party policy on legalisation. [ Mail on Sunday/MORI 15.10.00. Another poll found that 53% believe that using cannabis is no worse than smoking or drinking, while 43% believe that the personal use of cannabis should be legalised: Guardian/ICM, October 2000. ]
  2. 58% believe personal use of cannabis should be decriminalised, with only 29% opposed. Again, the public is far closer to the Green Party than to Tory or Labour.
  3. 87% say that cannabis should be available on prescription for medical purposes - Green Party policy, but not Labour or Tory. Only 7% agree with Labour and the Tories that it shouldn't.
  4. 55% believe cannabis should be on sale through licensed outlets - Green Party policy - with only 36% agreeing with Labour and the Tories that it shouldn't.
  5. 64% believe the police spend too much time prosecuting cannabis users instead of cracking down on serious drugs crime. Again, the majority support the Green view, not the Labour or Tory view (only 17%). [ Mail on Sunday/MORI 15.10.00. ]

The environment

  1. Recent polls show serious concern about the environment, major dissatisfaction with the government's performance on environmental issues, and strong support for the environmental policies of the Green Party.
  2. In a recent poll, 55% said the parties' environmental policies would influence the way they vote in the general election. [ The Ecologist, vol 31 no 4, May 2001, p33.] In Scotland the figure was 72% [ ICM/Scotsman May 2001.]
  3. 65% said Labour has not succeeded in improving the environment since it came to power. [ Ecologist, ibid.]
  4. 41% said the government was spending too little on the environment and only 34% said it was spending enough. [ MORI/Mail on Sunday, 23.7.2000. ]
  5. Clearly the public isn't impressed with Labour's environmental record. But who can they trust? A recent poll asked who cares most about the environment - the Tory, Labour or Liberal Democrat leaders or yourself? 68% of respondents said they care more about the environment than any of the big three consumer-capitalist party leaders.
  6. Only 13% said Tony Blair cared most, despite his claim to have "put the environment at the heart of government."
  7. The Liberal Democrats strive to portray themselves as green - yet only 7% of respondents believed LibDem leader Charles Kennedy cared more about the environment than they themselves. [ Ecologist vol 31 no 4, May 2001 p38.]
  8. Taken together, these results indicate widespread concern about environmental issues, and no confidence in the consumer-capitalist parties' commitment. This can only suggest a preference for the Green Party on the environmental policy which 55-72% of respondents say will influence their vote.

Conclusion

  1. There is an enormous gulf between the percentage of people who say they will vote Green, and the percentages who support Green Party policy. This can only be explained by
    1. lack of public awareness of Green Party policy, and
    2. the effects of the first-past-the-post electoral system in creating a disparity between people's actual preferences and their voting intentions.
  2. British democracy would be more effective if information about the smaller parties was more readily available. Specifically, it is very clear that the Green Party would enjoy a far greater share of the vote if the media gave greater exposure to Green Party policies.