Newsnight's Michael Crick last night spelled out Labour's nightmare scenario in the Norwich North by-election:that there is a chance "that they [Labour] might come third behind the Greens." (1)
Michael Crick pointed out that "the Greens are Strong in Norwich," already having a strong base in Norwich South and having gone from fourth to first place in a couple of divisions in Norwich North since the last county elections (2). The Greens have thirteen city councillors in Norwich, where they outpolled all comers in this year's county and European elections. They also have seven county councillors in the Norwich city area, a gain of five this year.
Liberal Democrats "might be leapfrogged and come fourth behind the Greens"
Earlier in the report Michael Crick accused the Liberal democrats of running a very negative campaign against Green Party candidate and local city councillor Dr Rupert Read. Michael Crick pointed out that the Liberal Democrats "might even be leapfrogged and become fourth choice for voters behind the Greens."
Norwich Greens are pursuing their campaign "calmly and systematically without over-egging their chances," according to a source close to their campaign HQ. The Green vote has not hitherto been as high in the Norwich North constituency as in Norwich South.
But in the first opinion poll of the campaign (3) - albeit on a relatively small sample - the Greens were on 14%, just behind the LibDems on 15%. Labour was still in second place on 30% but this was down 15 points from the previous general election.
The Green Party has been seen to be doing well off the back of the Labour Party's current difficulties, said Michael Crick. He remarked that it was an "omen perhaps that Labour's campaign HQ is next to a graveyard."
Notes for editors
1. Newsnight 1 July 2009: www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00lj683/Newsnight_30_06_2009
2. See www.greenparty.org.uk/elections/councilresults09.html
3. See www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2009-6-26-norwich-north-poll.html, citing an ICM poll for the University and College Union.