An in-depth poll of Britain's marginal constituencies (1) today predicts that Green Party leader Caroline Lucas will take the Brighton Pavilion seat in the coming general election.
The poll predicts that the Conservatives will form the next government with a majority of 70 seats. Last year's equivalent poll, however, predicted a Conservative majority of 146 - so today's poll indicates a major drop in support for the Conservatives in marginal seats during the last year.
The Lib Dems could currently expect to win 55 seats, says the poll. This is higher than last year's prediction of 44, but would still represent a major loss compared to the 63 seats the Lib Dems currently hold (2). This suggests the Lib Dems' popularity in marginal seats continues to fluctuate but is still low, and they could currently expect to lose one in eight of their seats in parliament.
"Everything to play for"
Caroline Lucas's campaign director Paul Steedman commented today:
"A lot of people have been predicting a possible Green win in Brighton Pavilion - not least during the Labour conference here last week (3) - but this is the first major poll to unequivocally predict a win for Caroline, so obviously it's very encouraging.
"Of course there's a lot of work to do between now and then to put Caroline's victory beyond doubt, but Caroline is an exceptional candidate and the Greens have outpolled everyone else in Brighton and Hove in every election since 2005, so we're determined to pull out all the stops and clinch it."
Mr Steedman pointed out that in Brighton and Hove:
Notes
1. The poll was carried out by YouGov for Politics Home. See http://page.politicshome.com/documents/2009ElectoralIndex.pdf.
2. The new poll makes the following prediction compared with the 2005 general election and last year's equivalent poll:
3. See "Labour left "now has more in common with Lucas" than with own leadership" http://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/28-09-2009-labour-left-lucas.html.