A new national poll, published in the Observer, is a further sign that the Green Party is on course to win the Brighton Pavilion constituency in the next general election. (1)
The Observer said the poll "demonstrates that, rather than powering towards a landslide victory, Cameron's party is struggling to capture the number of floating voters it needs".
Greens say this matches the most recent and comprehensive independent poll of marginal seats. Floating voters in Brighton Pavilion constituency are going to the Greens, and that more detailed poll predicted a Green win.
Green Party Campaign Director Paul Steedman said: "The Observer poll supports what voters are telling us on the doorsteps of Brighton. If they have been previously unsure about who they'll vote for in the general election. Now more of them are telling us they're going to give their vote to Caroline."
"The Conservatives have been complacent, only recently selecting a candidate, whereas we have not taken anything for granted and worked hard."
"Floating voters are now seeing us as the party they want to win in Brighton."
"Brighton Pavilion is now a two-horse race between the Greens and the Conservatives. It looks like the bookies have got it right with the money being on a Lucas win."
In the most recent version of Politics Home's huge poll of marginal seats, the position in Brighton Pavilion is made clear.
As they did last year, Politics Home polled around 34 000 people in 238 marginal seats, divided into 17 groups of similar seats, to make a projection of how people would vote in a general election now. (2)
The Politics Home poll's author, the widely respected pollster Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report, said the following: "In most areas the narrowing of the Conservative lead isn't due to any vast increase in Labour support, but a shift from the Conservatives to ‘others'. That is, incidentally probably the reason why the seaside towns group is so bad for them - because others are up by 11 points, almost all that to the Greens.
"The uniform swing in that group is enough for the Greens to take Brighton Pavilion -- and given that the support for the Greens is probably actually concentrated in the Brighton seats rather than all the seaside towns polls, that's probably a very good sign indeed for them in that seat."
Notes to Editors
- For more information on the campaign in Brighton, Matt Follett, Brighton and Hove Green Party Chair, is available for interview.
1) Observer poll:
www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/22/tory-lead-falls-mori-poll
2) Politics Home poll
politicshome.com/uk/politicshome_electoral_index2009.html